Will Iraqis Ratify Their New Constitution?

Iraq has finally completed writing its constitution! They missed their Aug. 15th deadline, but everybody gets to turn in late work every now and then, right? So, all of this is good news, right? Well, maybe not. While two of Iraq’s major groups are pleased with the constitution, one of them is not, and it must be ratified by a vote of the people. Why do many Kurds and Shiites (a/k/a Shia) agree to the draft constitution and most Sunnis do not? It turns out that the Sunnis are opposed to adopting a system of federalism instead of a unitary nation. (Gee, I've seen these terms in my "We the People" book!) The BBC has done a good job of summarizing all of this in a relatively short article.)

Also there is a possibility that some in the Sunni minority (along with others opposed to the new government) will respond with increased violence. All of this is bad for the U.S. mission in Iraq, that a majority of the public think is being mismanaged by the Bush administration.

Okay, so why oppose federalism? Would you be surprised to learn that at the root of it is who gets to control the nation's oil wealth? From an article in the NY Times comes the following:

The issue of federalism is critical: Sunnis fear not only a giant Shiite state in the south but also future bids by the Kurds to expand their region into northern oil-producing areas, as they have demanded. That would leave the Sunnis cut off from Iraq's oil wealth.

Of course, not all of the Shiites agree. Followers of Muqutada al-Sadr are opposing the constitution as well. (Read more here.) On the streets of Iraq, many of the people are less interested in the constitution than they are in getting basic services back that still have not been restored fully since the U.S. began it's attack on Iraq. From the NYTimes:

"What constitution are you talking about?" Mr. Sami, a Shiite, said sardonically. "We are fed up with this thing! We would prefer to solve our problems first, such as electricity, water and security. How come they gathered to approve the constitution while Iraqis are slaughtered?"